The building data is in from 2016, and the numbers are looking good! Growth has continued as builders created $2,487,905,044 in California home starts. That’s 5.6% more single-family homes than the same period a year ago!
5 trends shaping the 2017 housing market.
1. Rising Rates
In December, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for only the second time since 2006, and a majority of the members of the Fed’s rate-setting board predict there will be three more increases coming in 2017. These decisions will cause mortgage rates to rise, potentially making it more difficult for prospective homebuyers to be able to afford the home of their dreams. (In fact, those rates have already started creeping up.) But don’t worry too much about this trend. As Redfin Chief Economist Nela Richardson predicts in a recent blog post, “We expect mortgage interest rates to increase, but to no higher than 4.3 percent on the 30-year fixed rate.” That’s still a great deal compared to historical norms.
2. More Credit
Redfin’s Richardson also points out that though rates may rise, mortgage credit will likely be more widely available due to slightly looser lending standards. She points out that the Federal Housing Administration will likely lower fees it charges first-time homebuyers, a continuation of a trend begun in the Obama administration, under which it lowered fees in 2015.
In addition, starting in 2017, government-owned mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will begin backing larger mortgages for the first time in over a decade, making it easier for buyers in expensive markets to finance their purchases.
3. More New Homes
Though the most recent data on new home construction showed that builders pulled back on new projects in November, the overall trend in home construction is clearly positive, with the average annual rate of new groundbreakings reaching a 1.163 million rate so far in 2016, up about 5% from 1.108 million in 2015.
Expect this to continue in 2017, as home builders are encouraged by higher wages, looser credit, and increased demand from buyers.
4. The Continued Rise of Medium-sized Cities
One of the dominant stories of the current economic recovery is that top-tier economic cities like New York, Seattle, and San Francisco have seen property values rise as workers flock to these locations to take advantage of high-paying jobs. But this trend has put a strain on those cities’ real estate markets , because new construction is often unable to keep pace with demand due to geographic constraints, or restrictions imposed by local government regulations.
That’s why more younger folks are finding themselves attracted to medium-sized cities, which may not have the same professional opportunities as their larger counterparts, but provide housing affordability. Cities like Raleigh, N.C., and Fort Collins, Colo., have seen building permit issuance soar over the past six years as they attract younger adults seeking cheap rents and lower asking prices. Expect the trend to continue in 2017.
5. Foreign Buyers Aren’t Going Away
One trend that is helping drive prices beyond the realm of affordability in places like New York and Los Angeles is an influx of foreign buyers of U.S. real estate. This has only increased of late, fueled in particular by buyers from China who are looking for safe places to store their wealth, away from the slowing economy of the homeland, where repressive financial policies make it difficult to earn decent returns on savings. “U.S. and Europe continue to attract growing amounts of foreign capital, especially from Asian investors,” writes Scott
As you continue working hard, so do we, keeping with our motto here at All Truss of, “Service is our Hallmark, Quality Craftsmanship our Pledge”.
This data was obtained from the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), a service provided by the California Homebuilding Foundation. CIRB data offers valuable insight into the health and activity of the building industry in California. Monthly statewide reports provide residential and non-residential construction permit statistics for all California counties and reporting cities within. For more information on monthly subscriptions or custom reports, please contact Jill Herman or Allison Paul (916) 340-3340 or chf-cirb@mychf.org or visit the CIRB website at http://www.mychf.org/go/cirb/
U.S. home prices have climbed back above the record reached more than a decade ago, bringing a close to the worst period for the housing market since the Great Depression and stoking optimism for a more sustainable expansion.
New data from the CIRB, Construction Industry Research Board, indicating building growth when they released their August 2016 data, which details the number of new building permits in California during a given month. In August there were 4,059 new single family units and 5,216 multi-family units, totaling 9,275 new homes. 2,300 more as compared to last August.